The last couple of months I have worked very hard on method GAPP and have finally made a very big improvement to it. In the past GAPP was only able to pin point where in the architecture the biggest variance in response time was caused. The improvement to GAPP makes it now also possible to find within certain error also the service time per measured component in the architecture. The point is that sometimes the component causing the biggest variance in end user response time is not always the component responsible for the most service time of the total response time.
The second version of GAPP has now an extra step inside the method, which is “data modeling”, the data is first modeled by using normalized response times for different amount of servers by using the Erlang C formula. Next to this data mining is used with a generalized linear model and ridge regression, to solve near collinearities in the data. With this extra step in place the prediction of service time and wait time per measured component became possible. When I first verified it against real system data I was really happy to find out that it works very well. More information will follow soon in blogs and hopefully for the end of this year in a white paper.
I am very happy I get the opportunity from Hotsos to be able to present it next year in march 2011. Via this way I also like to thank everybody who inspired me and made this possible, especially Cary Millsap and Dr. Neil Gunther.
The link to the presentation abstract: http://www.hotsos.com/sym11/sym_speakers_hendriksen.html